Is it possible to find an easy horse racing system that uses only one handicapping factor and still comes up with good bets? The answer is a definite yes, but there are a few caveats. The whole goal of evaluating runners and betting on them is to find a horse with an edge that is underestimated by the other bettors so it is what is known as an overlay. That’s academic and common knowledge to most horse players.
The big problem, of course, is to actually pull that intellectual feat off. You’re up against a lot of other people and many of them are really good at what they do. There are also people with inside knowledge and last–but certainly not least–there are people who control the race by riding the runners or training and preparing them. There you sit with your racing program thinking that maybe, just maybe, you can beat them.
Well you can’t beat all of those people, but you can beat the other ones who have no more information or influence than you do and the way you do it is by knowing which factor is important in a race and which ones to throw out. After you manage that tough job, the next problem is whether or not the race is playable. What makes a race worth playing? Two things.
First of all, you must have an opinion about a horse and it must be that the horse has an edge. In many races you’ll find a horse with a slight edge in class, speed, or form, but not enough of an edge to make it worth your while. On the other hand, sometimes you’ll find a race where one runner does have a big enough margin in the speed or class department to make it a good bet if one other condition is met.
Of course I’m talking price. Your risk must be more than offset by possible reward. The irony of this approach is that it only works in races with a runner with a big edge in one department and yet we often use many factors to quantify each runner’s chances and then somehow try to put a price on that. Some people try to total the disparities in factors and then use the final result to make a morning line.
What actually happens in these cases is that we start comparing apples and oranges, so to speak, and then try to make sense of that. We may think, “Well this horse has a five point edge in class and that horse has a six point edge in speed so this horse or that horse is better.” You may as well play Russian Roulette with your bankroll.
In order to make money betting on horses, handicap each race on the program and find those few horses that have a big edge in just one category. I like to see at least 2-1 odds on such a horse in order to make it profitable, but you’ll have to use your own judgment and decide if the odds offered are worth it. Forget races where all the runners are too evenly matched. Those races are crap shoots.